The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that a best-case scenario sees global GDP growth falling to negative 3 percent in 2020 (IMF). Their worst-case scenario, in which the pandemic’s spread does not diminish in the second half of 2020, subtracts an additional 3 percent from GDP growth (IMF). Before the coronavirus pandemic began circulating the globe, the IMF projected 6.3 percent global GDP growth in 2020 (IMF). If the projection is accurate, the Great Lockdown, as termed by the IMF, will be the most severe global recession since the Great Depression (NYT).
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research and analysis division of the Economist Group, the Great Lockdown recession may be followed by another (BBC). Agathe Demarais, the EIU’s global forecasting director, expanded on the cause of a subsequent recession. Demarais stated many European countries that are among the worst affected had weak economies before the pandemic (BBC). “A potential debt crisis in any of these countries would quickly spread to other developed countries… possibly [causing a] much worse downturn,” Demarais added (BBC).