Terrorist groups have become increasingly prevalent in West Africa as they strive to gain territory and overthrow the governments of these countries (Office of the Director of National Intelligence). As Ukraine and Russia are fighting for each other’s territory, the two countries have expanded their efforts beyond Eastern Europe to garner support and exercise their influence in Africa. A series of recent reports casts light on these efforts to use the instability in Africa to gain an advantage over the other country (BBC 1). In the early stages of the war, the Ukrainian government had sought to develop diplomatic ties with African countries after Russia began its invasion, realizing that a lack of outreach to the region left them without a strong network of allies (BBC 1). Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba made four African tours to countries like Malawi and Zambia, according to an article from the British Broadcasting Center (BBC 1). This outreach produced favorable results for Ukraine, with Zambia signing the final communique of the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland back in June (BBC 1). However, the recent involvement of the Ukrainian military with certain rebel groups in Africa have strained these diplomatic improvements. In response, the Russian government has deployed the Africa Corps, made from the remnants of the private military company Wagner Group, to assist the regimes in combatting these rebels (BBC 2).
In particular, the country of Mali has been an especially notable example of this clash. Mali’s military junta has been in combat against Tuareg separatists in the northern part of the country since 2011, with Russia deploying Africa Corps to assist the junta (BBC 3). With regards to Ukraine, the BBC article quoted a spokesman for the GUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence service, in saying that the country’s support for the rebels consisted of “necessary information, and not just information, which enabled a successful military operation” (BBC 1). The BBC also cites additional reports suggesting “that Ukrainian special forces had trained the separatists in the use of attack drones” (BBC 1). These actions culminated in a heavy defeat for the Africa Corps in the area of Tinzaouaten, where 84 of the group’s fighters as well as 47 Malian soldiers died (BBC 1). Additionally, in the country of Sudan, there are also possible indications that Ukrainian special forces may have conducted a drone strike on a Wagner-backed militia currently fighting against the country’s military regime (Cable News Network).
Given that the Wagner Group had previously fought in support of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and helped Mali’s junta take the Tuareg capital of Kidal, this incident provided a major advantage and show of strength for Ukraine militarily. This is another signal of Ukraine’s willingness to go on the offensive despite the attempted invasion of its territory, as the country also made incursions into the western Russian territory of Kursk over the past summer (National Public Radio). Ukraine’s offensives outside of their country have proven to raise morale for the civilian populations that hope to see an end to the years-long invasion by Russia (National Public Radio). There have been official denials by the Ukrainian government of their interventions in Africa following the comments of the GUR spokesman as well as uncertainty over whether the country supplied drones to the Tuareg rebels (BBC 4). Nonetheless, these actions prompted Mali and neighboring states to not only break ties with Ukraine but also move away from the West more broadly in favor of strengthening ties with Russia (Al Jazeera). As terrorism is spreading to coastal countries in West Africa and violence is increasing as a result, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) notes that the rest of the region may do so as well, saying that “at some point, Vaguer [sic] may be their only option” (ODNI). Already, the region is seeing refugee flows from conflict areas and the “worst food crisis in a decade” stemming from the instability, according to ODNI (ODNI).
References
Office of the Director of National Intelligence: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NICM-Declassified-Sahelian-Instability-Spreading-Sept2024.pdf
BBC 1: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78ld18lgr9o
BBC 2: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn1p81q59o
BBC 3: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz04ryym45eo
Cable News Network (CNN): https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html
National Public Radio (NPR): https://www.npr.org/2024/08/09/g-s1-16131/ukraine-presses-offensive-inside-russia-as-moscow-scrambles-to-respond