On the morning of Sunday, December 8th, 2024, Syria was liberated from the rule of President Bashar al-Assad as opposition forces advanced through the capital, only to discover that the former president had fled Damascus (BROOKINGS). The collapse of the 53-year-old Assad regime was marked as a historic moment, brought about by 14 years of peaceful protests that were met with violence and escalated into a bloody civil war (BBC).
The events began a week prior, on November 27th, 2024, when a group of opposition fighters led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied Turkish factions launched a major offensive against government forces (BROOKINGS). The first attack took place on the front lines between opposition-held Idlib and the governorate of Aleppo, resulting in a victory for the opposition fighters, who captured Aleppo (BROOKINGS).
Syrian rebel forces subsequently seized much of the northwest, which led them to Damascus (NEW YORK TIMES). Currently, Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s former president, has fled to Russia, though the exact details of his departure remain undisclosed (NEW YORK TIMES).
During the Assad regime, Russia maintained a prominent military presence in Syria, which contributed to Syria’s military power. Moscow had access to Mediterranean air support while Syria remained grounded (BBC). With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syrians expressed a desire for Russian forces to leave, although the interim government has indicated an openness to further cooperation in order to maintain Russia’s presence in Syria (BBC).
Moscow had also tested various weapons in Syria and secured 49-year leases on two military bases along the Mediterranean coast (FORBES). Due to the economic and political struggles under Assad’s regime, Russia was unable to save his government. In response, Russia offered sanctuary to Assad and his family, but Syrians now hold Russia partially responsible for the regime’s downfall (FORBES).
The new de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, stated that Russia would be allowed to remain for strategic reasons (FORBES). However, with no direct control over Syria’s military, it will be necessary to rebuild the military and rely on Russian supplies that was supplied from the 1950s to the 1990s (FORBES).
Looking ahead, the future of Russia’s involvement in Syria remains uncertain. Should Russia choose to withdraw, Syria could face increased instability and a power vacuum that might prompt other foreign actors to intervene (BBC). The new government would likely be forced to seek alternative alliances or military support, potentially shifting the balance of power in the region (BBC).
References
BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czx5xx7ne2wo
BROOKINGS: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-assad-regime-falls-what-happens-now/
NEW YORK TIMES: https://www.nytimes.com/article/syria-civil-war-rebels.html