Following the end of World War II, civil war erupted in China between Mao Ze-Dong’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), led by Chiang Kai-Shek. By 1949, the CCP declared victory over the KMT, marking the start of the People’s Republic of China (PBS 1). Chiang Kai-Shek and his party subsequently fled to Taiwan (BBC 1). Since then, Taiwan has operated in its own governmental capacity, first under the authoritarian regime of Chiang Kai-Shek, then transitioning to democracy after his 1996 death (BBC 1).
Taiwan’s political landscape primarily fluctuates between two major parties: the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)(Taiwan.gov). According to the Kuomintang official party website, their politicians are opposed to the idea of military war for independence and affirm their goal to, “maintain peaceful, stable relations” on both sides (KMT.org.tw). The KMT caters to a more traditional voter base who are less eager for Taiwanese sovereignty and more so hoping to maintain what many refer to as “status quo”, in which “Taiwan neither declares independence from China nor unites with it” (BBC 1). Conversely, the DPP is a more progressive party in their policies and stance on Taiwan’s independence. According to the Council of Asian Liberals and Democrats, the Taiwanese DPP, “…will continue to…progressively reform, and take new political developments into account, to ensure the prosperity, peace, and happiness of the citizens of Taiwan.” (CALD).
In January of 2024, William Lai (Lai Ching-Te) was elected as Taiwan’s 16th president, marking a 3rd consecutive win for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan (Al Jazeera 1). Lai succeeded Tsai Ing-Wen, whom he served as vice president under during her 2020-2024 presidency. Tsai served two full terms from 2016-2024 and was firm in her pro-independence stance. Beijing cut official communication following her initial election in 2016, when she refused to affirm the One-China policy (AP). Lai has asserted his intention to continue Tsai’s mission and, according to political scientist Lev Nachman, “William Lai has spent the past two and half years trying to convince the world he is going to be a Tsai Ing-Wen 2.0 figure.” (Al Jazeera 1).
Beijing has ascribed this particular election to a vote on “peace and war”, in which now-president William Lai represents the latter (CNBC 1). Furthermore, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Wang Wen-Bin, describes President Lai as a “troublemaker” who “clings stubbornly to the separatist position” (PBS 2).
The impact these elections have had on cross-strait relations is further evident in China’s increasing retaliation towards the island. Despite a decades-long tacit agreement between the Taiwanese and Chinese governments to respect the “median line” running diagonally through the strait, China has begun blatantly breaching this line, both by air and sea (BBC 2). In what is referred to as “gray zone warfare”, China continuously crosses this boundary with its fighter jets in military drills (BBC 1) and has only increased this pressure in recent years. According to BBC, “In 2022, China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) nearly doubled.” (BBC 1). The Global Taiwan Institute states, these drills have been increasing in frequency since 2018, often coinciding with displays of US-Taiwan relations (e.g., signing of the US Taiwan Travel Act) or presidential speeches from Tsai and/or Lai (Global Taiwan Institute).
What may this mean for the future? In Lai’s inaugural speech he asserts his intention to continue strengthening Taiwan’s military forces, “we must demonstrate our resolution to defend our nation…strengthened national defense; improved economic security; have stable and principled cross-strait leadership; and values-based diplomacy.” (President.gov.tw).
References
AP News
Al Jazeera
BBC
CNBC
Global Taiwan Institute
PBS
- https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/china-republic-establishment/
- https://youtu.be/rr6QwQag2rU?si=uUE_ACo8PN8rQaKB&t=96
https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/content_4.php
http://www1.kmt.org.tw/english/page.aspx?type=para&mnum=105
https://english.president.gov.tw/Page/651
https://cald.org/member-parties/democratic-progressive-party-of-taiwan/