New Developments in Syrian Regime - UCF Global Perspectives and International Initiatives

Syria’s new government, three months after the fall of Bashar al Assad, is at what the top Syrian UN envoy described as a crossroads between conflict, political fragmentation, violations of Syrian sovereignty, and secular violence or protection of sovereignty, regional security, and an end to the 13 year long Syrian civil war and its aftermath (AP 1). The fragile balance of the Syrian state has become exacerbated by the breakout of sectarian violence between pro-Assadist groups that have attacked government officials in sporadic attacks across the country and coast sparking retribution attacks from Islamist and government forces (Human Rights Watch 1)

Already, temporary president Ahmad al-Sharaa has been accused of hiding his organization HTS’s Sahafi Jihadist ideology behind bureaucracy (The Jamestown Foundation). Al-Sharaa has already demonstrated a pragmatic approach to ruling and an openness to reform despite the origins of his organization, but these stances have already been called into question by the outbreak of violence and dissent spreading both internally and externally as well as constitutional Islamization which has polarized many Syrians (The Jamestown Foundation). Human Rights groups so far have criticized the newly declared constitution for entrenching executive power within al-Sharaa, giving him the ability to act as president for five transitional years while providing little to no oversight for checks and balances with executive power over judicial and legislative authority (Human Rights Watch 2)

In early March 2025 immense secular violence rapidly broke out along Syria’s coastal cities, in which Assad loyalists have killed Syrian military personnel, sparking a domino effect of retribution kills leading to estimates ranging up to 1,5000 dead, mostly civilians, but also including fighters from both sides (Arab Center Washington D.C.). Reportedly, pro-Assad media has been circulated calling for the creation of a “Military Council for the liberation of Syria” (Etana on X). On March 7, al-Sharaa would call for “liberation” and “purification” of these minority communities (Human Rights Watch 1). Civilians who were targeted in retribution killings were mostly members of the Alawite Shia minority sect, to which the dominating Assad family belongs (CNN). Reports coming out of the conflict reported summary executions of men in the streets and the burning and looting of homes (Guardian/AP 2). The government has admitted to the retribution attacks being partly allocated to “unorganized elements” or unofficial actors that have participated in the targeted violence against these minority communities (Human Rights Watch 1).

More Recently, the outbreak of fighting that has been reported to have spread to the Damascus suburb of Al-Qadam, where Alawite families have reported at least 25 disappearances with the targets being either reported dead or still missing (Reuters 1). Witnesses have pointed to some of these masked men who have taken the victims as a part of the new government General Security Services (GSS), made up of former rebel fighters who have been integrated into the state (Reuters 1).

The international response has been outright denouncement of all parties involved with UN calls for further investigation and cooperation on the part of the Syrian government (UN News). On March 14, the UN security council released a unanimous statement with Russian-American agreement calling for an end to the hostilities and an open investigation (Arab Center Washington D.C.). March 9, al-Sharaa would declare an independent state committee to investigate the violence in 30 days and ensure judicial process for those responsible (Human Rights Watch 1). However, al-Sharaa has been criticized for his last national dialogue leaving out key Syrian minority actors such as the Kurds (Relief Web). Sectarian violence coupled with poor government control over the conflict has led to concerns regarding a broader protection over Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities (Relief Web).

The impacts of this violence have reached much more regional proportions, with over 21,000 people fleeing into Lebanon to escape the bloodshed, according to the UNHCR (The New Indian Express). Recent developments along the Lebanon-Syria border have seen intensified clashes involving the Lebanese army, Syrian forces, and Hezbollah, leading to significant casualties and raising concerns about regional stability (AP 3)

In early March 2025, Syria sent forces to the suburb of Jaramana outside Damascus, with a predominantly Druze community- a minority which the Israeli military has orders to defend in Syria following their occupation of the Golan Heights territory in southern Syria (Al Jazeera 1). Israel occupied the Golan Heights zone- a U.N. monitored buffer zone- on December 8, following the immediate fall of Assad and demanding southern Syria be demilitarized to ensure Israeli and Syrian Druze security (AP 4).

Following the sectarian violence spreading along the Syrian coast, the Kurds in northern Syria released a statement condemning the violence and calling al-Sharaa to halt the “massacres.” (Reuters 2). The next day, on March 10, 2025, the SDF and Syrian government would announce a deal that would integrate the U.S.-backed Kurdish SDF into the official Syrian army and state institutions (Al Jazeera English). However, the recent signing of the country’s interim constitution which accentuates Islamic Jurisprudence and establishes that Syria’s president must be Muslim, has been rejected by many non-Muslim Kurds including the Syriac Union Party in the Kurdish administration, opening a problematic horizon with secular conflicts and Kurdish opposition (Rudaw).

The U.S. issued a statement condemning “radical Islamist terrorists” in the days following the outbreak of the conflict, highlighting U.S. reluctance to supply sanctions relief to the new regime (Relief Web). Since then, U.S. deputy Assistant Secretary for the Levant and Syria, Natasha Frenceschi gave Syrian officials the official Trump administration demands before sanctions relief can be approved (Reuters 3).

Works Cited:

AP:

Human Rights Watch:

Human Rights Watch 1, https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/03/10/syria-end-coastal-killing-spree-protect-civilians
Human Rights Watch 2, https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/03/25/syria-constitutional-declaration-risks-endangering-rights

Reuters:

Al Jazeera:

Al Jazeera 1, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/3/syrian-forces-deployed-in-jaramana-to-end-unrest
Al Jazeera English, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0iAz0AMyxA

Other Sources:

Jamestown Foundation, https://jamestown.org/program/how-al-sharaas-new-syrian-regime-masks-its-islamism-behind-bureaucracy/
Arab Center Washington D.C., https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/timeline-of-the-recent-sectarian-strife-on-syrias-coast/

The New Indian Express, https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2025/Mar/25/un-says-more-than-21000-people-fled-syria-sectarian-violence-for-lebanon

Rudaw, https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/140320252

Posted April 15, 2025