A decade after the removal of the one-child policy in China, the nation’s birth rates have plummeted, leaving their population in a declining state (AP News). For the fourth consecutive year, China’s population has continuously shrunk, with birth rates dropping to 5.63 for every 1,000 members of the population (17%) (AP News). There are many reasons for this decline such as low fertility rates, aging of citizens, and rising costs for raising children. The Chinese government is implementing various changes to sway the increase of birth rates (The Guardian). A few examples of this include the implementation of a 13% tax rate on condoms, expansion of national healthcare to cover childbirth related costs, and the provision of 90bn yuan to cover childcare programs (The Guardian). Although the nation’s economy remains one of the strongest in the world, the average cost for raising a child in China until 18 years old is 538,000 yuan (AP News). This is 6.3 times higher than the per capita GDP (AP News). The United Nations has warned that at this rate the country could lose half of their population by 2100 (The Guardian).
The high costs of education and housing, poor career opportunities and social shift towards marriage and having children have set a stable precedent for this situation (BBC News). The fundamentals of the one-child policy came with its benefits but also made the livelihood of Chinese citizens progressively less fit for childbearing (Think Global Health). The shrinking and aging of the population is expected to reduce the workforce and decrease economic growth and labor marker implications (NBC News).
In terms of diplomacy, China’s economy hit their growth target in 2025, despite the ongoing trade war with President Trump (The Guardian). Although experts expect their economy to decrease along with the birth rates, recent data depicts otherwise (National Library of Medicine). The National Bureau of Statistic stated that China’s annual economic growth over the last decade averaged 0.53 percent, which is down 0.04 percent in the previous decade (NBC News). According to economists, this portrays a demographic time bomb, which would mean that many Chinese citizens could become old before they become rich (AP News). A possibly dwindling economy may affect foreign policy influence and geopolitics (National Library of Medicine).
If China attempted to prevent the economic effects of the declining population and workforce, social stagnation remains a possibility (Nippon). Marriage registration numbers have consecutively fallen since 2013 with many Chinese citizens viewing marriage as undesirable (South China Morning Post). The country also has increasing divorce rates, and it is one of the least fertile countries in the world (Bloomberg News). A leading cause for why Chinese citizens did not feel comfortable with having children recently was because it was too expensive to raise a child (AP News). If the economy declines or fails to stabilize, it could affect population trends, with broader implications for foreign policy, labor, and the social climate in China (National Library of Medicine).
Sources
BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79r7v7qr53o
Bloomberg News: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-23/china-s-record-low-birth-rate-underscores-population-challenges
Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/a245eef4‐3a5e‐11ea‐a01a‐bae547046735
National Library of Medicine:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12039660/#:~:text=population%20growth%2C%20economy-,INTRODUCTION,observed%20decline%20prior%20to%20this.
NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china‐s‐population‐still‐growing‐barely‐n1266904
Nippon: https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00740/
South China Morning Post: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3162221/why-are-chinas-gen-z-women-rejecting-marriage-kids-more-their
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/19/china-population-falls-again-birthrate-record-low
Think Global Health: https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/chinas-failing-bid-reverse-population-decline