On December 28, 2025, Iranian shopkeepers took the streets of Tehran to protest the economic mismanagement of the Islamic Republic regime, which has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution (Amnesty International). Iran’s currency, the rial, fell to a record low against the U.S. dollar and inflation increased to 40 percent, rendering everyday items unaffordable for many Iranians (BBC 1). Analysts called these developments the result of decades of state corruption and debilitating sanctions over the country’s nuclear program (Foreign Affairs). But what began as a limited-scale protest over the economy soon escalated into a nationwide demonstration that lasted until mid-January, with many Iranians calling for regime change (BBC 1).
In response to the protests, the Iranian regime began a violent crackdown and vowed decisive action against those responsible (NY Times 1). On January 8, the regime implemented a countrywide internet shutdown, which limited international observers’ ability to assess events within the country (Amnesty International). Throughout the protests, Elon Musk’s aerospace company, SpaceX, provided Iran with free access to its Starlink satellite internet service, which aided Iranians in circumventing the regime’s attempt to block the outward flow of information (AP News).
Eyewitness accounts described Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as opening fire, at times indiscriminately, on unarmed protesters (BBC 1). Along with deadly force, the regime used state media to issue threats against protestors, including trying people with “waging war against god”, a legal charge which can carry death sentences (NY Times 2). The regime also repeatedly referred to the protestors as terrorists who are funded and armed by foreign governments, namely the United States and Israel (NY Times 1).
The internet shutdown has made independent verification of protestor deaths difficult. Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based organization focused on Iran, has verified more than 6,000 dead but is investigating 11,280 other cases, giving a possible total of over 17,000 (HRANA). This figure differs greatly from the Iranian regime’s own official death toll of 3,117 people (PBS).
U.S. President Donald Trump responded to the protests on social media, urging Iranians to keep protesting and telling them help is on the way (Reuters). Throughout January, President Trump began threatening Iran with military strikes if the regime refused to stop killing protestors and halt their nuclear program (BBC 2). In response to President Trump’s threats, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that Iran was militarily prepared to respond quickly and powerfully to any attack by the United States (BBC 3).
As rhetoric between the sides continued to escalate, a slow buildup of U.S. military assets in the Middle East also occurred. In late January, the USS Abraham Lincoln, a U.S. aircraft carrier, was spotted near the coast of Oman (BBC 4). The U.S. has also deployed an increasing number of destroyers and aircraft to the region, particularly F-15 and EA-18 fighter jets (BBC 5).
On February 6, officials from both countries met in Oman in an attempt to de-escalate growing tensions. The talks did not produce an agreement, but both President Trump and Araghchi called the meeting productive (Reuters 2).
Further indirect talks occurred on February 17 in Geneva. Officials from both sides indicated that further progress was made, with Araghchi saying a “set of guiding principles” had been agreed to but that a deal was not imminent (NY Times 3).
It is not known what range of issues were discussed in both Oman and Geneva. Iranian officials have indicated a preference to limit discussions to its nuclear program, while U.S. officials have said they would also push to limit Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and end the regime’s support of proxy groups in middle east (NY Times 3).
While members of the international community discuss the possibility of regime change in Iran as an imminent event, it is not clear what kind of government would replace the Islamic Republic regime and attain popular support (Foreign Affairs 2). A 2024 Iranian political preference poll by GAMAAN found that an overwhelming majority of Iranians support a transition to democracy, but there is widespread division over government structure. In the poll, around 26% of Iranians favored a secular republic, 21% favored a monarchy and around 15% favored a federal structure of some kind. The last choice was particularly popular in ethnic provinces such as Kurdistan, West Azerbaijan and Sistan and Baluchistan (GAMAAN). Collectively, the uncertain lifespan of the current regime and the lack of popular consensus on its replacement paint an unclear picture of Iran’s political future.
Sources
Amnesty International: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2026/01/what-happened-at-the-protests-in-iran/
BBC 1: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjw8wxl3d6o
BBC 2: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c394ymdpjwvo
BBC 3: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5pd459gko
BBC 4: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5pd98z87o
BBC 5: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1d64p3q2d0o
Foreign Affairs 1: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iranian-regime-could-fall
Foreign Affairs 2: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-iranian-regime-breaks
GAMAAN: https://gamaan.org/2025/08/20/analytical-report-on-iranians-political-preferences-in-2024/
NY Times 1: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/25/world/middleeast/iran-how-crackdown-was-done.html
NY Times 2: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/world/middleeast/iran-protests-crushed.html